2006 Oscars: Prediction versus Results


7 out of 24

Well, I did NOT call it correctly this year. It wasn’t the year of the Alternative Lifestyle film, and I thought it was a sure thing. Instead it was a year for Crash and big monkeys. Where my prediction matches results, both are in bold.

Best Film
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

PREDICTION: CAPOTE
RESULTS: CRASH

Best Foreign Language Film
La Bestia nel cuore / Don’t Tell (Italy)
Joyeux Noël / Merry Christmas (France)
Paradise Now (Palestine)
Sophie Scholl – Die Letzten Tage / Sophie Scholl – The Final Days (Germany)
Tsotsi (South Africa)

PREDICTION: PARADISE NOW
RESULTS: TSOTSI

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Straitharn, Good Night, and Good Luck.

PREDICTION: Hoffman
RESULT: Hoffman

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Judi Dench
Felicity Huffman
Keira Knightley
Charlize Theron
Reese Witherspoon

PREDICTION: JUDI DENCH
RESULT: REESE WITHERSPOON

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
George Clooney
Matt Dillon
Paul Giamatti
Jake Gyllenhaal
William Hurt

PREDICTION: Gyllenhall
RESULT: Clooney

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams
Catherine Keener
Frances McDormand
Rachel Weisz
Michelle Williams

PREDICTION: Michelle Williams
RESULT: Rachel Weisz

Best Achievement in Directing
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Paul Haggis, Crash
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Steven Spielberg, Munich

PREDICTION: Bennet Miller
RESULT: Ang Lee (could have figured that)

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Crash, Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco; story by Paul Haggis
Good Night, and Good Luck., George Clooney and Grant Heslov
Match Point, Woody Allen
The Squid and the Whale, Noah Baumbach
Syriana, Stephen Gaghan

PREDICTION: Clooney and Heslov (Good Night and good Luck)
RESULT: Haggis and Moresco (Crash)

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Brokeback Mountain, Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana
Capote, Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener, Jeffrey Caine
A History of Violence, Josh Olson
Munich, Tony Kushner and Eric Roth

PREDICTION: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
RESULT: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN


Best Animated Feature Film
Hauru no ugoku shiro / Howl’s Moving Castle, Hayao Miyazaki
Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride, Tim Burton and Mike Johnson
Wallace and Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, Nick Park and Steve Box

PREDICTION: Howl’s Moving Castle
RESULT: Wallace and Gromit (no complaints… it’s a great film)

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Batman Begins, Wally Pfister
Brokeback Mountain, Rodrigo Prieto
Good Night, and Good Luck., Robert Elswit
Memoirs of a Geisha, Dion Beebe
The New World, Emmanuel Lubezki

PREDICTION: either GEISHA or GOOD NIGHT
RESULTS: GEISHA (okay, I was guessing)

Best Achievement in Editing
Cinderella Man, Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
The Constant Gardener, Claire Simpson
Crash, Hughes Winborne
Munich, Michael Kahn
Walk the Line, Michael McCusker

PREDICTION: MUNICH
RESULT: CRASH

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Good Night, and Good Luck., Art Direction: Jim Bissell; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Art Direction: Stuart Craig;
Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
King Kong, Art Direction: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Dan Hennah and Simon Bright
Memoirs of a Geisha, Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau
Pride & Prejudice, Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer

PREDICTION: KING KONG, though there’s room for an upset by GEISHA and/or PRIDE AND PREJUDICE.
RESULT: GEISHA (not much of a prediction; it doesn’t count)

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Gabriella Pescucci
Memoirs of a Geisha, Colleen Atwood
Mrs. Henderson Presents, Sandy Powell
Pride & Prejudice, Jacqueline Durran
Walk the Line, Arianne Phillips

PREDICTION: PRIDE AND PREJUDICE
RESULTS: GEISHA

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Brokeback Mountain, Gustavo Santaolalla
The Constant Gardener, Alberto Iglesias
Memoirs of a Geisha, John Williams
Munich, John Williams
Pride & Prejudice, Dario Marianelli

PREDICTION: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
RESULT: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures
Original Song“In the Deep” from Crash Music by Kathleen “Bird” York and Michael Becker; Lyric by Kathleen “Bird” York
“It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp” from Hustle & Flow, Music and Lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman, and Paul Beauregard
“Travelin’ Thru” from Transamerica, Music and Lyric by Dolly Parton

PREDICTION: It’s Hard out Here for a Pimp
RESULT: It’s Hard out Here for a Pimp

Best Achievement in Makeup
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Howard Berger and Tami Lane
Cinderella Man, David Leroy Anderson and Lance Anderson
Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith, Dave Elsey and Annette Miles

PREDICTION: Narnia
RESULTS: Narnia

Best Achievement in Sound
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,
Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic and Tony Johnson
King Kong, Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek
Memoirs of a Geisha, Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline and John Pritchett
Walk the Line, Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland
War of the Worlds, Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins

PREDICTION: WAR OF THE WORLDS
RESULTS: KING KONG

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
King Kong, Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn
Memoirs of a Geisha, Wylie Stateman
War of the Worlds, Richard King

PREDICTION: KING KONG
RESULTS: KING KONG

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe,
Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar
King Kong, Joe Letteri, Brian Van’t Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor
War of the Worlds, Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra and Daniel Sudick

PREDICTION: NARNIA
RESULTS: KING KONG

Best Documentary, Features
Darwin’s Nightmare, Hubert Sauper
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, Alex Gibney and Jason Kliot
La Marche de l’empereur / March of the Penguins, Luc Jacquet and Yves Darondeau
Murderball, Henry-Alex Rubin and Dana Adam Shapiro
Street Fight, Marshall Curry

PREDICTIONS: MARCH OF THE PENGUINS
RESULTS: MARCH OF THE PENGUINS

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club, Dan Krauss
God Sleeps in Rwanda, Kimberlee Acquaro and Stacy Sherman
The Mushroom Club, Steven Okazaki
A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin, Corinne Marrinan and Eric Simonson

PREDICTION: Dunno, Don’t care.
RESULTS: Golden Age of Norman Corwin

Best Short Film, Animated
Badgered, Sharon Colman
The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation, John Canemaker and Peggy Stern
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello, Anthony Lucas
9, Shane Acker
One Man Band, Andrew Jimenez and Mark Andrews

PREDICTION: Mysterious Geographic Explorations
RESULTS: The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation

Best Short Film, Live Action
Ausreisser / The Runaway, Ulrike Grote
Cashback, Sean Ellis and Lene Bausager
The Last Farm, Rúnar Rúnarsson and Thor S. Sigurjónsson
Our Time Is Up, Rob Pearlstein and Pia Clemente
Six Shooter, Martin McDonagh

PREDICTION: Aureisser
RESULT: Six Shooter

On a final note: I was among the many, many people who had better things to do than watch the Oscars. I didn’t even turn on the TV Sunday night.

6 comments

  1. wow, my hats off to you for just taking the time & thought to make predictions for all those catagories. I had no idea [and I must admit, no interest] there were so many catagories. i usually just listen/look for the top 5…best film, actor/actress & supporting.
    My first inclination is to suggest you have too much time on your hands, but then anyone who has a blog can probably be accused of that too.
    So I’ll just say, “Well Done, Walt”.

  2. I’d rather donate a kidney without anaethesia than watch the Oscar presentations, and I didn’t do it tonight. However, I love movies. Enough to actually see a few of these.

    As for the amount of effort involved, copying the categories and candidates from the Oscar site and typing in a short analysis isn’t all that much work, and copying THAT and typing in what actually won is even less. 😀

  3. Walt,
    You are TOO modest. Just reading those catagories would tire me out much less cutting & pasting!!!
    As Dr Smith would shriek “The Horror! The Horror!”…oh wait or was that Brando in Apocalypse Now?

    oh well.

    “And here I’ve been using my own lungs all these years like a sucker” – Homer Simpson

    ciao,

    rick

  4. Walt,
    You are TOO modest. Just reading those catagories would tire me out much less cutting & pasting!!!
    As Dr Smith would shriek “The Horror! The Horror!”…oh wait or was that Brando in Apocalypse Now?

    oh well.

    “And here I’ve been using my own lungs all these years like a sucker” – Homer Simpson

    ciao,

    rick

  5. Man…looking at your predicitions…I gotta say, I think you’re lucky to have gotten what you got.

    –RC of strangeculture.blogspot.com

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